16一場外交游戲(doc)
16、A Diplomatic Game The ambassador entered the Oval Office a minute early, at 10:59 A.M. on December 10th of a year in early 1980s. He was a short, overweight man with a broad Slavic1 face and eyes that would have done a professional gambler proud. They revealed2 nothing. He was a career diplomat, having served in a number of posts throughout the Western world. 　　“ Good morning, Mr. President, Dr. Pelt,” Alexei Arbatov nodded politely to both men. The president, he noted at once, was seated behind his desk. Every other time he'd been here the president had come around the desk to shake hands, then sat down beside him. 　　“ Help yourself to some coffee, Mr. Ambassador,” Pelt offered. The special assistant to the president for national security affairs was well known to Arbatov. Jeffrey Pelt was an academic from the Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies--an enemy, but a well- mannered enemy. Arbatov had a fondness for3 the niceties4 of formal behavior. Today, Pelt was standing at his boss's side, unwilling to come too close to him. Arbatov did not get himself any coffee. 　　“ Mr. Ambassador,” Pelt began, “ we have noted a troubling increase in your naval activity in the North Atlantic.” 　　“ Oh?” Arbatov's eyebrows shot up in a display of surprise that fooled no one, and he knew it. “ I have no knowledge of this. As you know, I have never been a sailor.” 　　“ Shall we dispense5 with the bullshit6 , Mr. Ambassador?” the president said. Arbatov did not permit himself to be surprised by the vulgarity7. The American president seemed to need a professional like Pelt around to smooth the edges. “ You certainly have nearly a hundred naval vessels8 operating in the North Atlantic or heading in that direction. Chairman of your country and my predecessor agreed years ago that no such operation would take place without prior notification9. The purpose of this agreement, as you know, was to prevent acts that might appear to be unduly10 provocative11 to one side or the other. This agreement has been kept--until now. 　　“ Now, my military advisers tell me that what is going on looks very much like a war exercise, indeed, could be the precursor12 to a war. How are we to tell the difference? Your ships are now passing east of Iceland and will soon be in a position from which they can threaten our trade routes to Europe. This situation is at the least unsettling13, and at the most a grave and wholly14 unwarranted15 provocation. The scope of this action has not yet been made public. That will change, and when it does, Alex, the American people will demand action on my part.” The president paused, expecting a response but getting only a nod. 　　Pelt went on for him. “ Mr Ambassador, your country has seen fit to cast aside an agreement which for years has been a model of East-West cooperation. How can you expect us to regard this as anything other than a provocation?” 　　“ Mr. President, Dr. Pelt, truly I have no knowledge of this.” Arbatov lied with the utmost16 sincerity. “ I will contact my superiors at once to ascertain17 the facts. Is there any message you wish me to pass along?” 　　“ Yes. As you and your superiors will understand,” the president said, “ we will deploy18 our ships and aircraft to observe yours. Prudence19 requires this. We have no wish to interfere with whatever legitimate20 operations your forces may be engaged in. It is not our intention to make a provocation of our own, but under the terms of our agreement we have the right to know what is going on, Mr. Ambassador. Until we do, we are unable to issue the proper orders to our men. It would be well for your government to consider that having so many of your ships and our ships, your aircraft and our aircraft in close proximity21 is an inherently22 dangerous situation. Accidents can happen. An action by one side or the other which at another time would seem harmless might seem to be something else entirely. Wars have begun in this way, Mr. Ambassador.” The president leaned back to let that thought hang in the air for a moment. When he went on, he spoke more gently. “ Of course, I regard this possibility as remote, but is it not irresponsible to take such chances?” 　　“ Mr. President, you make your point well, as always, but as you know, the sea is free for the passage of all, and...” 　　“ Mr. Ambassador,” Pelt interrupted, “ consider a simple analogy23. Your next-door neighbor begins to patrol24 his front yard with a loaded shotgun25 while your children are at play in your own front yard. In this country such action would be technically legal. Even so, would it not be a matter of concern?” 　　“ So it would, Dr. Pelt, but the situation you describe is very different...” 　　Now the president interrupted. “ Indeed it is. The situation at hand is far more dangerous. It is the breach26 of an agreement, and I find that especially disquieting27.I had hoped that we were entering a new era of our relations.We have settled our trade differences.We have just concluded a new grain agreement. You had a major part in that. We have been moving forward, Mr. Ambassador--is this at an end?” The president shook his head emphatically28. “ I hope not, but the choice is yours. The relationship between our countries can only be based on trust. 　　“ Mr. Ambassador,I trust that I have not alarmed you. As you know, it is my habit to speak plainly. I personally dislike the greasy dissimulation29 of diplomacy. At times like this, we must communicate quickly and clearly. We have a dangerous situation before us, and we must work together, rapidly, to resolve it. My military commanders are greatly concerned, and I need to know—today--what your naval forces are up to. I expect a reply by seven this evening.” 　　Arbatov stood. “ Mr. President, I will transmit your message within the hour. Please keep in mind, however, the time differential between the two Capitals--.” 　　“ I expect that some of your country's managers may still be at work. In any case, I will detain30 you no further. Good day.” 一場外交游戲 80年代初某年12月10日上午10點59分，某國大使提早一分鐘走進了橢圓形辦公室。此 人是個矮胖男子，有著一張斯拉夫人的寬臉龐，目光敏銳，連賭博行家都會為之稱羨， 但是一切都深藏不露。他是個職業(yè)外交家，在西方世界許多地方任過職。 　　“早上好，總統(tǒng)先生，佩爾特博士，”阿列克謝·阿爾巴托夫彬彬有禮地向這兩個人點 頭問好。他立刻注意到，總統(tǒng)坐在辦公桌后邊。以前他每次來時，總統(tǒng)總是繞過桌子來 和他握手，然后坐在他的旁邊。 　　“請自己用咖啡,大使先生。”佩爾特說。阿爾巴托夫對這位總統(tǒng)國家安全事務特別助 理十分了解。杰弗里·佩爾特是喬治城大學戰(zhàn)略與國際問題研究中心的研究員——是個敵手 ，一個溫文爾雅的敵手。阿爾巴托夫十分注意正式場合人們舉止的細微之處。今天，佩 爾特站在他上司一邊，不愿意和他湊得太近。阿爾巴托夫自己沒有去倒咖啡。 　　“大使先生，”佩爾特開了腔，“我們已經(jīng)注意到貴國海軍在北大西洋活動大增，這一 情況令人不安啊?！?　　“喔？”阿爾巴托夫眉毛一抬，表示驚奇，但這騙不了誰，連他自己也清楚?！拔覍Υ?一無所知。你們知道，我從未當過水兵?！?　　“咱們還是廢話少說好嗎，大使先生？”總統(tǒng)說。阿爾巴托夫對這句粗話感到意外， 但還是克制住不溢于言表。美國總統(tǒng)說這種話，似乎需要有個像佩爾特這樣的行家在身 邊圓圓場?！澳銈兡壳坝袑⒔?00艘海軍艦艇在北大西洋活動或者朝那個方向進發(fā)。貴國 主席和我的前任在幾年前曾達成協(xié)議：未經(jīng)事先通知，不得在該地區(qū)進行此類活動。這 一協(xié)議的目的你也明白，是為了防止可能出現(xiàn)過分刺激對方的行動。這一協(xié)議一直得到 遵守直到現(xiàn)在。 　　“現(xiàn)在，我的軍事顧問們告訴我，目前正在發(fā)生的一切看上去非常像一場戰(zhàn)爭演習， 甚至，可能是一場戰(zhàn)爭的先兆。叫我們怎么說得清到底是什么呢？你們的軍艦現(xiàn)在正從 冰島以東通過，很快就將進入可以威脅我們通往歐洲的貿(mào)易航線的位置。這一形勢至少 是令人不安的，極而言之，則是一場嚴重的全然無端的挑釁。這些活動的范圍還沒有公 諸于眾。但情況會發(fā)生變化，而一旦情況有了變化，阿列克謝，美國人民就會要求我本 人采取行動?！笨偨y(tǒng)停頓了一下，等著回答，但是阿爾巴托夫只是點了點頭。 　　佩爾特接著總統(tǒng)的話說：“大使先生，多年來一直是東西方合作典范的一項協(xié)議，貴 國認為已經(jīng)可以拋之一邊了，那你們怎么能期望我們不把這一行動看成是挑釁呢？” 　　“總統(tǒng)先生，佩爾特博士，我真的對此一無所知?！卑柊屯蟹蜓b著一片至誠，但是 他在撒謊?！拔視R上和我的上司聯(lián)系弄清事實的。二位有什么話要我傳遞的嗎？” 　　“有，你和你的上司將會明白，”總統(tǒng)說，“我們將部署我們的艦艇和飛機來監(jiān)視你們 的活動。為了慎重，我們必須這樣做。我們不想干涉貴國軍隊可能進行的任何合理行動 。我們無意進行挑釁，但是，根據(jù)我們的協(xié)議條款，我們有權了解正在發(fā)生的情況，大 使先生。只有了解清楚以后，我們才能給我方官兵發(fā)布恰當?shù)拿?。希望貴國政府不妨 考慮一下，雙方如此多的艦艇和飛機，靠得又很緊密，這本身就是一種危險的形勢。各 種意外事故難免會發(fā)生。一方或另一方采取的行動，在其他時候看來似乎并無惡意，但 現(xiàn)在則可能會是截然不同的另一碼事。有些戰(zhàn)爭就是這樣開始的，大使先生。”總統(tǒng)向后 靠了靠，好讓這種看法在阿爾巴托夫的腦際縈繞片刻?？偨y(tǒng)繼續(xù)說道，但比較溫和了。 “當然，我認為這種可能性極小，不過，要存這樣的僥幸心理豈不是有點不負責任嗎？” 　　“總統(tǒng)先生，你跟往常一樣，把你的觀點闡述得十分清楚，可是你知道，那片海域是 誰都可以自由通過的，并且——” 　　“大使先生，”佩爾特打斷了他的話，“打個簡單的比方。你的孩子在自己的前院玩耍 ，而你的隔壁鄰居卻拿著上了子彈的獵槍在他自己的前院里巡邏。在我們這個國家，這 種行動從法律上講是合法的?？杀M管如此，難道這不也是一件令人擔心的事嗎？” 　　“可不是，佩爾特博士，但你說的情況卻是兩碼事——” 　　這次是總統(tǒng)打斷了他的話?！按_實不同。目前的形勢要遠為危險得多。這是破壞協(xié)議 ，我認為特別令人不安。我曾希望我們的關系將進入一個新時代。我們已經(jīng)解決了貿(mào)易 上的爭議問題，我們剛締結了一項新的谷物協(xié)定。你在其中起了很大作用。我們一直在 前進，大使先生——難道就到此為止了？”總統(tǒng)使勁搖了搖頭：“我希望不是，可是這要看 你們了。我們兩國的關系只能建立在互相信任的基礎上。 　　“大使先生，我相信我沒有讓你感到不安。你知道，我習慣于坦率陳言。我這個人不 喜歡外交上逢場作戲，裝模作樣那一套。在當前這樣的時刻，我們必須迅速而明確地交 換意見。我們面臨著危險的局勢，我們必須共同努力，迅速地加以解決。我們的軍界領 導人極為關切，我今天就要知道貴國的海軍想干什么。我希望在今晚7時以...
16一場外交游戲(doc)